This is Louie’s conceptual analysis of https://doublr.io/old/#/fund game with a deployment of leadhands contract on top https://github.com/Genr8or/Genr8or/blob/master/contracts/IronHands.sol .
How much p3d volume is required to clear the current backlog?
Approx 6190 ETH volume is required for P3D contract to generate 619 ETH worth of dividend.
Doublr contract holds 1.16% of P3D tokens.
Verdict: Approx 533,620 ETH volume is required for P3D contract is required to generate sufficient volume to pay out all existing backlog. Your guess is as good as mine on how long it will take for P3D to generate this amount of volume.
Value of Doublr Contract
Doublr contract has a backlog of 620 ETH and a current P3D sales value of 694 ETH. Based on these two numbers, Doublr contract has a net book value of 64 ETH.
Because of how Doublr contract was implemented, the P3D tokens within the Doublr contract can never be sold. A discount should be applied to those 30000 P3D tokens since these underlying assets can never be liquidated into ETH and only be used to generate dividend.
Think of this as an oil field play, beneath the 10000m of rocks and lava, there are 10000000 barrels of oil and the supply of this oil increases by 100 barrels a day. We have also have the ability to extract 100 barrels a day only (revenue income), but there are no possible way to extract everything at once. This asset would be significantly discounted, this oil reserve will not be valued based on the reserve but based on the daily revenue generation. If there is a way to extract all the reserve at once, then this reserve will be valued at billions of dollars, but since it can only produce 100 barrels a day, then it will be valued at only a few million. Probably not the best example, but it’s similar to the Doublr contract with P3D tokens that can never be sold.
Verdict: How much discount should we apply to Doublr contract’s P3D assets? 10%, 20%, 30% or more? If we simply take a 20% discount, then -65 ETH on valuation of doublr’s contract value.
Deployment of Leadhands onto Doublr Contract
With the valuation of Doublr contract possibly at negative value (depending on the subjective discount should be applied to the assets), it would only make sense for users to purchase tokens into the Doublr contract with leadhands under only one condition: The backlog in the Doublr Contract is lesser than the subjective valuation of the Doublr Contract.
Will Leadhands bonds have a floor of 1 ETH?
No in my opinion. This is also related to the valuation of the Doublr Contract, if the underlying assets have a negative value, then the bonds will also have a negative value. But it if you want, but I’ll buy your bonds at 0.1 ETH instead to take you out of misery.
What if everyone fomo into the Leadhands?
Again, valuation of the Doublr contract is at play here, the more joinining in the party, the longer the backlog, potentially lesser valuation for the Doublr Contract. This results in forever waiting for the payout, your bond price will tank well below 1 ETH initial value.
The current Doublr contract value is not high enough to attract me for the Leadhands deployment. This could change as time goes by and the backlog shrinks or P3D value increases.
Removing the current Doublr contract out of the equation, the Leadhands bond concept can be applied in other applications and making it a worthy code.